Dynamics of Colombia’s Palm Oil Trade in International Markets: A Gravity Model Approach
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The gravity model of trade is important for analyzing the competitive dynamics of Colombian palm oil in international markets, within a context of production expansion driven by public-private partnership strategies. Using a positivist and quantitative approach, data from the period 2011–2023 and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimations are used to assess the impact of economic, geographic, cultural, and administrative factors on export performance. The central contribution of this study lies in adapting the gravity model to an agricultural sector that is strategic for the Colombian economy, identifying trade patterns based on cultural affinities and geographic proximity—elements that have been little explored in previous studies on the international trade of agricultural products. The results show that the model explains 61.5% of the variability in exports, revealing a greater propensity for Colombia to establish trade relations with Spanish-speaking, neighboring, or nearby countries, which has significant strategic implications. Based on these findings, the need for both exporting companies and policymakers to implement differentiated internationalization strategies tailored to each market is highlighted: sustainability and certifications for the European Union, logistical efficiency for North America, and productive cooperation with Latin American partners. These strategies strengthen companies' ability to compete and position themselves effectively in global markets, while also helping to overcome cultural, logistical, and administrative barriers.
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