Midiendo la conectividad bidireccional: un análisis cuantílico de las fluctuaciones del precio de la electricidad y la dinámica de la producción industrial en Colombia

Published 2025-05-11
Scientific articles

Abstract

Este estudio analiza la relación entre los precios de la electricidad y la producción industrial, centrándose en los escenarios de precios promedios y extremos. Utilizando datos colombianos, donde el 70% de la electricidad proviene de fuentes hidroeléctricas y el resto de las plantas termoeléctricas alimentadas por combustibles fósiles, se revela un vínculo bidireccional entre estas variables. Las fluctuaciones climáticas que afectan la generación hidroeléctrica inciden en los precios de la electricidad y, a su vez, en la producción industrial. Se observa que el alza en los precios de la electricidad impacta negativamente la producción industrial debido a mayores costos, mientras que un incremento en la producción industrial puede reducir los precios de la electricidad, indicando una influencia mutua. Este estudio sugiere oportunidades estratégicas al alinear la producción con las fluctuaciones de los precios de la electricidad y formular políticas para estimular la producción e impulsar el crecimiento económico.

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