Analysis of Colombian market volatility in the covid-19 scenario: a review from the postulates of fractal geometry and econometric models

Published 2023-09-10
Scientific articles

Abstract

The analysis of the MSCI COLCAP index of the Colombian Stock Exchange is crucial to understand the dynamics of the market and assess its stability and risks, especially post-pandemic. This study is justified by the need to examine the persistence and behavior of the volatility of the Colombian index in a context affected by covid-19, where price fluctuations have been notoriously marked. Using the Hurst coefficient, it was determined that the index shows historical memory. The volatility analysis, based on 20-day windows, revealed greater instability after the pandemic. Backtesting tests with GARCH models indicated a significant increase in risk during the pandemic, with expected values of -1.14% before the pandemic, -7.4% in March 2020 and -1.95% afterwards. Given the above context, it can be said that the present study allows us to understand the dynamics and stability of the Colombian market post-pandemic and provides practical tools to improve risk forecasting and management. It is relevant to investors, regulators and academics interested in emerging markets and their response to disruptive global events.

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